A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve
In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend inflation and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time-varying Phillips curve and time-varying inflation persistence. What sets this paper apart from the existing literature is that we do not use unbounded ra...
متن کاملOnline Appendix for: A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve
This appendix contains two sections. The first is a technical appendix which describes the prior and MCMC algorithm used to estimate our bivariate model of inflation and unemployment (labelled Bi-UC in the paper). It also provides additional estimation details about the other models used for comparison. The second is section contains a prior predictive analysis. Papers cited in this appendix ar...
متن کاملProduct Market Regulation, Trend Inflation and Inflation Dynamics in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
In this empirical paper, we take a close look at the impact of observed changes in the product market regulation, which raises barriers to entry and empediments to competition, on inflation dynamics since the early 1980s. We use an enlarged new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) allowing for entry of firms and for increasing competitive pressures with the number of firms and non zero trend inflati...
متن کاملThe Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New estimates for Germany
This paper provides new estimates of a time–varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification using two alternative estimators, the Kalman Filter and the partially linear model. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far below unity, whatever measure of expected inflation rates is employed. ...
متن کاملThe Phillips Curve and Underlying Inflation
This paper examines methods of controlling the supply shock in the estimation of the Phillips curve and discusses the relationship between the supply shock and inflation inertia. The empirical results clearly show that controlling the supply shock effect, not only for current inflation but also for lagged inflation using the asymmetry of the price change distribution, substantially outperforms ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2014
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2382980